Climate Change and Conflict
So due to poor insight on my part (or perfect planning) my meeting schedule has been put on hold at least in the official sense as most Bangkokians have fled the city to celebrate Thai New Year. Those few brave natives that stay in the city are then subject to the thousands of foreigners that descend on Bangkok and other Thai cities to celebrate Songkran!
Songkran started as a fairly solemn Buddihst religious festival. Also known as the Thai New year or Thailand Water Festival, Songkran was originally celebrated as a way for the Thai people to sprinkle water on their family members and elders for good fortune and pay their respects to images of the beloved Buddha. Today, while that might be the case behind closed doors in peoples homes, the public festival is anything but! The festival has transitioned into 3 days of water play fun, splashing locals and visitors alike with buckets of water, water hoses and super-soakers as they gather in the streets. Bangkok shuts down for pretty much the entire week and it is one long wet party. It is interesting to me to be participating in this festival while thinking about climate change and issues of access to clean fresh water still running through my head from the week before. There is a long list of things I could find wrong with this in a changing world where resources are getting more scarce and such. But I decided that in this, I would just join in, loose myself to the unique experience and just have some fun... wet. Happy Songkran everyone!! To check out better photos and get more information (like I was going to take my phone out of its plastic case with all that water around), check out this website that shows lots of fun pictures and gives more details on the holiday. http://www.songkran2015.com/
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This week was an interesting week in Bangkok. I was able to meet up with APLP alumni in Bangkok (and scored a FREE place to stay for a week) which is always great, but I also had some great talks with environmental experts as well. Even after months of talking with people and learning about cultures affected by change in climate, I am still amazed by my ignorance of some of the basic trends in climate change work.
This week I learned about the difference between mitigation policy works versus adaptation programs. I learned much about this from talking with people at the Swedish International Development Corporation Agency (SIDA). That is a special thanks to Keiran Thitimakorn (APLP Alumni) which got me in the door. Gave me words of wisdom about the world of financing international environmental programs and working with ADB and SE Asia and for introducing me to three of his colleagues who gave me the education about these two program types. In essence, Mitigation is projects that attempt to curb or eliminate the contributors of Climate change. Wipe the slate clean and end these forms of pollution. Most projects that attempt mitigation are larger in scope and aimed more at national policies and international regulations. Adaptation take the form of projects (usually more local in scope) that are aimed at helping communities "adapt" to the "new norm" caused by climate change and allow people to find livings and live in this new changed world. Adaptation focuses more on individual communities, locals and segments of populations that are affected by the changes occurring in the environment. What I found most interesting is that programs usually focus on either one or the other, often not sharing information or coordinating action plans. On the surface I understood the argument that these were two very different approaches and they don't directly influence each other. Even if we stopped all green house gas pollutants and climate change factors and set them to 0, it will still take decades if not over a century for natural processes to take back over. Thus a balanced approach to mitigation and adaptation will be required. It seems only prudent that these two avenues of climate change work coordinate to some degree so a wise, balanced plan is put forward and followed. But it seldom works that way in the real world I guess. This week was a slow week for me so I thought to make a break I would post some pictures that relate to what I have been doing. If a picture is worth a thousand words, then the below would be an epic novel to rival War and Peace lol. Everything looks good. These are Chaing Mai in Thailand and Taal Volcano crater in the Philippines. Very idyllic. Taal is a tourist destination with a nice breeze and warm light. Very nice. But below is what is also happening in the Philippines. Conflict in Mindanao, crop failure and increased flooding and it is only getting worst. I had a taxi drive my last week in the Philippines that asked me what I was doing there, so I told him I was researching climate change and was interviewing people about what was happening in the Philippines. He was very interested because he said he helped his 9 year old son study in the evening and in order to help his son he was also reading the books which it turned out were science books. They were covering topics of climate change, geography and earth science I believe. He was very proud of what he had learned.
So, being the diligent researcher I am, I asked him his opinion regarding the top environmental issues facing the Philippines and what could be done. He just looked at me for a minute and said... "oh, well that is not my problem. I will be dead, so it will not affect me. Let someone else worry about it." A parent so proud of his 9 year old and his studies yet unable to see that though he may be dead, his child will inherit this problem. It is real but how to make people see... or more importantly... make them care. I felt defeated in that moment. This father, whether he knows it or not, probably just condemned his child to a hard life or a short one. I have been asked about the southern region of the Philippines and specifically the conflict between government forces and the Moros insurgent groups. For anyone that knows anything about the Philippines, then you immediately know the area... Mindanao and the Muslim insurgency that has been going on in at least one form or another for the past 60 years. Some research indicates longer... since Spain first landed in the 1600's. But lets not go all the way back that far and stick to the modern conflict so 60 years.
This conflict is convoluted with groups splitting, reforming, splitting again. Muslims against Catholics, Catholics against Communists (forgot about them?) Communists and against both. Regional Tribes against National Government and occasionally, the U.S. against al Qaeda and both National Government, U.S. Military and the on again off again support of local Muslim groups against international Jihadists... That is the stage and the players in a very condensed version. Confusing with constantly shifting ties. Currently there is a ceasefire between the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), the largest Muslim "rebel/freedom fighter" group and the Philippine National Government. However, an incident back in March that lead to the death of 44 National Police officers in the successful raid and shooting of a known international terrorist leader has strained the peace process and has led to investigations of current President Aquino. As can be imagined, there are many different feelings towards this conflict and the current peace negotiations. But for my research I focus on the people. The fluid nature of this insurgency/conflict leads to displacement. Every time fighting breaks out people have to flee their homes and are displaced to security camps elsewhere in the Philippines. A report from the World Bank states that "from 2011 until 2014, the total number of people who died, were injured, kidnapped or trafficked reached 7,972 while the total number of families displaced reached 77,052." I have seen other reports indicating this number is higher. The conflict is so fluid that as of March 2014, the World Bank has funded a conflict tracking program for the area that shows up to the minute research about the conflict and what is happening where. The release states "Comprehensive data about conflicts in the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) is now available to anyone with a computer or a mobile device with the launch of the Bangsamoro Conflict Monitoring System (BCMS) website." The website is www.bcms-philippines.info for anyone interested in following or are data nerds like me. In my first post I talked about the information i gathered from local area officials about the future certainty of massive coastal incursions by the sea and mass displacement of people from flooded regions. Additionally, the three weeks spent here in the Philippines has not made me see the government processes as up to the task of dealing with this conflict. IN my conversations "Corruption" comes up more than any other term. On a side trip to Southern Luzon and the Volcano at Taal, I heard about the corruption scandal where a group of private Korean businessmen attempted to build a resort in the middle of the lake on an island next to an active volcano that still shows discharge at night. This area is protected land. But the scandal showed for the right price they could get the permits to build. The project was already underway when other officials took notice and shut them down and two local officials where brought up on charges of corruption for accepting bribes to build the resort. One would think this story would highlight that there are officials that take their responsibilities seriously and when they found out of what was happening, they did the right thing and shut it down. However, the general sentiment is that perhaps the officials doing what was "right" where not motivated by altruism but more were pissed off that they were not given bribes as well and thus turned in the fellows out of spite... (that cannot be proven but definitely colored the story I was told) If the peace problem is going to be constantly colored by poor government decisions (this will not be the first peace initiative that has collapsed), corruption and revenge how can this be settled in time to work out the displacement effects of sea level rise? Mindanao is resource rich and not as populated as the islands northward, a seemingly ideal resettlement area for future displacement. However, the animosity between Muslim and Catholic groups will be very hard to overcome. Part of the conflict stems from the migration of Catholics from the northern areas to the south and the perceived marginalization of the Moros ethnic groups. I cannot imagine that in the future, even if peace is secured, people in the area will be happy about more "Catholics" coming from the north. One problem in the leadership managment of the area is that there are numerous Muslim factions so getting them all to agree will be difficult if not impossible. Even with a peace between Manila and MILF, there will still be fighting to root out these rabid groups. The conflict is far from over. This week has been a big one for reflection for me. After the GO GO GO pace of the last few weeks, I found I needed a breath. Also, many of the meeting requests I had sent out were not available for this week but next so I decided to just do them all next week and take time to BE here in Manila.
The on thing about Climate Change, is that people focus on the technical issues. I have talked about that before in previous blog posts, but going back over my notes, I really see it standing out. Technical problems, Greenhouse Gas reduction, pollution reduction, traffic congestion reduction... all forms of reduction. However, if you take something away, what do you replace it with? What fills the void? I learned that Manila has bad traffic. Traffic everywhere. This is the case in many cities in Asia - and around the world. In an effort to reduce traffic the city passed a law that was supposed to reduce the number of cars on the road. Every day during the week, licenses plates ending in certain numbers are not allowed to be on the roads during the heaviest traffic times. Basically, on Monday if your license plate ends in 1,2 or 3, you cannot be out on the road driving during peek times (I think that is 3-7) and so on the rest of the week all the way to 9. Forgive me if I get the exact numbers/days/times wrong, but this is the general concept. In theory I understand this and I see what the government was trying to do. However, when I asked locals what this meant in practice or how it impacted their lives, they said it just meant you bought a second car and had a license plate with different number on it. Now instead of reducing the number of cars you are almost doubling the number for most of the week as households get two cars instead of making due with just one. The consequence, traffic has continued to get worse not better. I would not say all laws have these types of unintended consequences but I think it is a safe assumption to say the the majority of laws passed do end up having unforeseen side effects that the drafters did not intend. The degree of impact on the society is variable. The reflections over this week have made me think a lot about unintended side effects and the need to think about what will fill the void when what is already in place is removed. Sometimes it can be good (indoor plumbing vs outhouse), or better then what was there. Other times, it can be much worse (the fall of Saddam Hussein). Don't get me wrong, I am not an advocate for Saddam and his regime, I only point out that the aftermath of that "reduction" was not what was intended and what filled the void not so good. So I have to ask with all these calls for reductions, what is going to fill the void? What is the plan and what must we do to make sure that what comes next is not worse then what we have now. And it is key to remember that it is not reductions in just one thing it is reduction through the whole cycle product/social/life. Not just the power plant spewing smoke, but transportation, mining, exploring, etc. So the thought of this week, what comes next? AND (lets be proactive here) what can each of us (we) do to make sure that what comes next is better? Anyone want to post their thought or have an answer they want to share with the class? This past week, I traveled to the Philippines. It is a first for me. It almost breaks my mind to meet a people that seem so remarkably friendly helpful and yet the country as a whole has major Conflict issues including an uneasy truce between the southern area and the rest of the country. But that is for a later post.
This past week, thanks to G'14 classmate, Pearl Pacada, I was taken to the province of Tarlac, 2 hours north of Manila. This happens to be where Pearl is from and also the province she was former Vice-Governor. Thanks to her, I was able to have a number of candid conversations with political members about the effects of climate change and even the conflict happening down south. Already, Typhoons are having more damaging landfall results and areas once sheltered from typhoon activities have started feeling the effects of larger storms or storms that have shifted from their traditional courses. Tarlac is actually positioned to ride out the climate change pattern fairly well given its location, however the province directly south of Tarlac which borders Manila will not be so lucky. Speaking with someone from the Provincial Capital, the Climate Change report done for the Institute of Governors outlined a 100 year model forecasting predictable impacts from climate change. It shows a rise in sea level which would put up to half of Manila and a large 20 km swath of the neighboring province underwater. That is hundreds of square kilometers of urban and agricultural land that will be submerged forcing resettlement of lands and a reduction in food production. However, it is more then just the technical problem of a new coast line and population resettlement. Filipino family units and the very social structure is based on long standing traditions with families occupying the same area (even the same house, village, plot of land) for generations. The loss of these areas will not just be a loss of farmland or village but a fundamental shift/loss/disruption to peoples very identities. On Saturday, I helped Pearl conduct her leadership workshop for 16 young high school women from her province. Hosted by Soroptimist International of Tarlac, the purpose of this workshop was to begin to give these young women the skills/tools needed to empower them. The social challenges they face are daunting. Philippine culture is not renowned for the empowerment of young women, especially in these rural areas where the most that is expected is for them to find a good husband from a good family to marry and then take over running the home. It was very exciting for me to be able to take part in these workshop and help possibly show these young women another way, or at least give them the tools to make them more empowered however their future turns out. Given the Climate Change report, they will certainly need to face some difficult challenges in their future. It has been a very busy two weeks! Late last week the GIST team gathered together again to do our Mid GIST Rendezvous/check in and, leaving tradition, we arranged to do a group project during the mid point. Putting our own specific research on hold, we banded together to try and give back; pooling our talents to help build something that will last.
After our night in Bangkok going over our activities we had done up until then and getting a feel for where all of our projects stood in their completion timing we got up Friday and made the trek to Chiangmai to work with a small rural primary school in the mountains north of Chiangmai. The team spent 5 days in the area working to help the new Director - a firestorm of a woman that inspires everyone who interacts with her to want to change lives for the better - to establish a new "Sustainability Guesthouse and immersive experience" for foreign guests. The money raised will go to help the school become self-sufficient and raise funds to increase the quality of education for the K-6 grade students that attend. Currently almost 50% of the 6th grade students are illiterate and lack access to basic quality eduction. The new director is driven to bring the literacy rate up to 100% during her tenure and the new "Guest House and Volunteer" project hopes to draw the international Eco-tourists already in the area to come stay at the school and interact with the children, help work to expand the schools organic garden and inspire this small community to better themselves. It is a noble vision and one we as a team were lucky to be part of. In our four days at the school site the team interviewed the Director, the faculty and staff and the surrounding village community to get a better idea of the vision of the project and the needs in the area. We then drafted a plan to start the guest house and created a Facebook site and a webpage that will allow people to follow the progress of the program and even book a stay at the initiative. Take a look and "LIKE" the Facebook page. Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/maewangschoolstay Website: TBD For my own purposes for my GIST research, I was able to talk with the Director and the Thai Team about the environmental issues faced in the rural mountain areas and learned more about the Self-Sufficient programs being pushed by the Thai King. After the project we returned to Bangkok and debriefed. Now we go our separate ways and I am off to the Philippines to continue with my research till the end of the Month. Nepal has been amazing. I met with a number of different people working in the field of Environmental Protection, Climate Change, Tourism, and Political Journalism - not to mention the random conversations with locals and foreign travelers I was able to chat with. All of it paints a picture of a country in transition, facing many problems. But for my topic, climate change is ever present and will only get worse.
I also had a chance to meet with others, though given my poor photo taking mentality, I failed to capture photographs with these insightful people; but with who's insights and guidence I was better able to understand the challenges facing Nepal especial in the issue of Climate Change and future possible conflict.
Thanks To: Raj Kumar GC - at iDE Nepal (http://www.idenepal.org/) His work and the work of iDE Nepal is out in the villages trying to bring sustainable electricity to rural communities utilizing Green Technology. It was fitting that that the brief converstaion I had with him was while he was attending a conference at the International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), a strategic development center in Nepal (based in Kathmandu) focused on strategic/sustainable and green development of the mountain communities in Nepal. ICIMOD with iDE are at the forefront of Climate Change in Nepal, working to combat the effects while developing Nepal. Parsu Ram Rai - with BlueDiamond Society Nepal. Blue Diamond is the overall umbrella organization working on LGBTQ issues in Nepal and Parsu is their Development Expert/counselor/government liason/senior advocate/ and all around grand high BUMPA of LGBTQ rights. In all my talks with every different organziation/leader/ and worker - education and advocacy are at the top of the priority list to change Nepal, both in terms of Climate Change and to avoid future conflict. Nepal is a fairly undeveloped nation yet leads in the world in LGBT rights, recognizing 3rd Gender and minority rights at levels the same or beyond even the Developed world and certainly beyond the US. Talking with Parsu allowed me to see the advocacy challenges. The biggest question to alleviate conflict and deal with Climate Change both is to change peoples perception. Parsu is a leader in this with very insightful thoughts on the current government. Amrit Rai - Manager Traverse Trekking and Guides. Amrit was Amazing. Talking with academics is one thing but Amrit comes from a family of Trekkers (Mountain Guides) that have been taking people hiking through the Mountains of Nepal for over 60+ years. He is the Manager at a family run Trekking Tourism company and acts as a guide during the two trekking season. While academics and policy analysts review numbers and report, Amrit and his family/guides see the effects of climate change in there work. From the drastic decrease in snow cover on the mountain tops to the increasing shrinkage of Nepals over 2000 Glaciers to the terrible flooding caused by glacier lake collapse, he has seen it all. Talking with him was getting a first hand account of the accelerated climate/weather/and ground conditions facing Nepal. I am not sure what I expected when I came here, but what I found is very different then anything I even remotely imagined. Kathmandu to me is a city of contrasts. It is a sprawling city stretching for miles, filling then entire valley from what I can see. While there are a couple of high rises, the majority is a sprawling mass of 2-6 level buildings made of brick and concrete. There is very little green and the roads look like little more then alleys. I am not sure city planning is even a concept they thought about as the city roads twist and turn. Because of the rolling power outages, there are no street lights or traffic signals. Not that they are dark, but that they are not even built. What would be the point? And the Dust... it is everywhere. But what can one expect when the city has grown in size almost 1000% in 40 years with much of the growth happening in the past 20?
On the other hand, the people. The people are warm and friendly - I would hazard to say more so then anywhere else I have been. Given all the challenges, they go about their daily lives and make the best of everything. I found myself walking down a "street" the other night on my quest for food. It was dark (no power), the streets were crowded and motor bikes and cars were racing up and down - headlights the only source of light. When they passed, the pedestrians were plunged back into darkness. Back in the US or many other places, this would be a cause for concern. Worry about pick pockets or people doing nefarious things would ever be on your mind. No one in their right mind walks down dark alleys in a sprawling city in the dark alone. But here, this is a fact of life. Women in colorful Saris walked near men in nice shoes and pants. children roamed, but not the roving bands of youth infamous for causing riots on the Metro in Washington, D.C. but kids in their school uniforms grabbing a bite to eat with friends and hanging out. I walked for almost a mile in my search for food and saw a city full of life, doing what we all do in all places, everywhere... living. In this, all of the "challenges" listed in the first paragraph are balanced by a rich life in the second. But this is just a surface impression. The observations of one westerner with only a few days of experience. I was very lucky as I was being hosted my first week by my fellow APLP G'14 Classmate and his family. Perhaps this has colored my view of Nepalese society. Yadav was a gracious host and his family (Brothers, Sister in Law, Father, Mother, Uncle and Cousin) all who I got to meet, allowed me to be part of the family, and I can honestly say, I have never eaten as well or as much in my life. This post is not about my GIST research regarding Climate Change and Conflict - that will come later. But I was able to talk in depth with his Father and His Uncle about what they have experienced here. It was most enlightening and helps to shape my view of this diverse society. Their insights as well as those others I will talk about in the next post show a different Nepal then the one we (rarely) hear about in the U.S. This is a place to come, to see a different world. One that may unfortunately vanish in the not to distant future. Since my GIST has a focus on conflict I feel that looking at all aspects that cause conflict are fair game.
I have been reading a book about Science and its potential impact on the future of human society. The book is entitled Physics of the Future: How Science Will Shape Human Destiny and Our Daily Lives by the Year 2100. Looooong title by the author, Michio Kaku, who I have seen host or contribute to many different science and space documentaries on Netflix has a number of interesting case studies - some of which are already outdated as the technology is here now. However, one passage caught my attention for its social implications. Though most of this book would offer a full years discussion on various causes of conflict that will potentially emerge in the future, the issue of technology replacing humans in the work force is of particular interest to me. But I jump ahead. Here is the passage: "The majority of visits to the doctor's office can be eliminated in this way, greatly relieving the stress on our health care system. If the problem is serious, the robodoc will recommend that you go to a hospital, where human doctors can provide intensive care. But even there, you will see AI [artificial intelligent] programs, in the form of robot nurses... These robot nurses are not truly intelligent but can move from one hospital room to another, administer the proper medicines to patients, and attend to their other needs..." (pg. 89) OK, so why did this jump out at me? As technology increases, it can benefit society and help people. Preventative care would definitely become cheaper and so would health care costs where most routine functions are covered by medical robots. This is great for the short term as most of the developed world is looking at a gross surplus of the aged in the next two decades that far exceeds the young. However we still have a global population surplus world wide and a large unemployment rate in even the developed societies. How can society re-absorb these thousands of former employees? It is estimated that technology evolves every 18 months. Taking into account the amount of time it takes for society to absorb this new technology, which provides a little more of a lag time, can society keep up with the pace of change? Can new industries and areas of employment be created and displaced people retrained and put back to work at a fast enough rate to keep up with technological replacements? Or do we as a society have to choose to not implement the technology fully in order to allow people to retain their jobs, even if it means sacrificing efficiency and I higher standard of care (in the specific example of nursing robots and doctors)? Or is there a third alternative? (besides turning back the clock and not innovating. I refuse to believe that that is a viable option) Just a question. Anyone have any thoughts? |
AuthorI'm Dan. Climate Change and Conflict. Archives
April 2015
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