Climate Change and Conflict
I have been asked about the southern region of the Philippines and specifically the conflict between government forces and the Moros insurgent groups. For anyone that knows anything about the Philippines, then you immediately know the area... Mindanao and the Muslim insurgency that has been going on in at least one form or another for the past 60 years. Some research indicates longer... since Spain first landed in the 1600's. But lets not go all the way back that far and stick to the modern conflict so 60 years.
This conflict is convoluted with groups splitting, reforming, splitting again. Muslims against Catholics, Catholics against Communists (forgot about them?) Communists and against both. Regional Tribes against National Government and occasionally, the U.S. against al Qaeda and both National Government, U.S. Military and the on again off again support of local Muslim groups against international Jihadists... That is the stage and the players in a very condensed version. Confusing with constantly shifting ties. Currently there is a ceasefire between the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), the largest Muslim "rebel/freedom fighter" group and the Philippine National Government. However, an incident back in March that lead to the death of 44 National Police officers in the successful raid and shooting of a known international terrorist leader has strained the peace process and has led to investigations of current President Aquino. As can be imagined, there are many different feelings towards this conflict and the current peace negotiations. But for my research I focus on the people. The fluid nature of this insurgency/conflict leads to displacement. Every time fighting breaks out people have to flee their homes and are displaced to security camps elsewhere in the Philippines. A report from the World Bank states that "from 2011 until 2014, the total number of people who died, were injured, kidnapped or trafficked reached 7,972 while the total number of families displaced reached 77,052." I have seen other reports indicating this number is higher. The conflict is so fluid that as of March 2014, the World Bank has funded a conflict tracking program for the area that shows up to the minute research about the conflict and what is happening where. The release states "Comprehensive data about conflicts in the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) is now available to anyone with a computer or a mobile device with the launch of the Bangsamoro Conflict Monitoring System (BCMS) website." The website is www.bcms-philippines.info for anyone interested in following or are data nerds like me. In my first post I talked about the information i gathered from local area officials about the future certainty of massive coastal incursions by the sea and mass displacement of people from flooded regions. Additionally, the three weeks spent here in the Philippines has not made me see the government processes as up to the task of dealing with this conflict. IN my conversations "Corruption" comes up more than any other term. On a side trip to Southern Luzon and the Volcano at Taal, I heard about the corruption scandal where a group of private Korean businessmen attempted to build a resort in the middle of the lake on an island next to an active volcano that still shows discharge at night. This area is protected land. But the scandal showed for the right price they could get the permits to build. The project was already underway when other officials took notice and shut them down and two local officials where brought up on charges of corruption for accepting bribes to build the resort. One would think this story would highlight that there are officials that take their responsibilities seriously and when they found out of what was happening, they did the right thing and shut it down. However, the general sentiment is that perhaps the officials doing what was "right" where not motivated by altruism but more were pissed off that they were not given bribes as well and thus turned in the fellows out of spite... (that cannot be proven but definitely colored the story I was told) If the peace problem is going to be constantly colored by poor government decisions (this will not be the first peace initiative that has collapsed), corruption and revenge how can this be settled in time to work out the displacement effects of sea level rise? Mindanao is resource rich and not as populated as the islands northward, a seemingly ideal resettlement area for future displacement. However, the animosity between Muslim and Catholic groups will be very hard to overcome. Part of the conflict stems from the migration of Catholics from the northern areas to the south and the perceived marginalization of the Moros ethnic groups. I cannot imagine that in the future, even if peace is secured, people in the area will be happy about more "Catholics" coming from the north. One problem in the leadership managment of the area is that there are numerous Muslim factions so getting them all to agree will be difficult if not impossible. Even with a peace between Manila and MILF, there will still be fighting to root out these rabid groups. The conflict is far from over.
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This week has been a big one for reflection for me. After the GO GO GO pace of the last few weeks, I found I needed a breath. Also, many of the meeting requests I had sent out were not available for this week but next so I decided to just do them all next week and take time to BE here in Manila.
The on thing about Climate Change, is that people focus on the technical issues. I have talked about that before in previous blog posts, but going back over my notes, I really see it standing out. Technical problems, Greenhouse Gas reduction, pollution reduction, traffic congestion reduction... all forms of reduction. However, if you take something away, what do you replace it with? What fills the void? I learned that Manila has bad traffic. Traffic everywhere. This is the case in many cities in Asia - and around the world. In an effort to reduce traffic the city passed a law that was supposed to reduce the number of cars on the road. Every day during the week, licenses plates ending in certain numbers are not allowed to be on the roads during the heaviest traffic times. Basically, on Monday if your license plate ends in 1,2 or 3, you cannot be out on the road driving during peek times (I think that is 3-7) and so on the rest of the week all the way to 9. Forgive me if I get the exact numbers/days/times wrong, but this is the general concept. In theory I understand this and I see what the government was trying to do. However, when I asked locals what this meant in practice or how it impacted their lives, they said it just meant you bought a second car and had a license plate with different number on it. Now instead of reducing the number of cars you are almost doubling the number for most of the week as households get two cars instead of making due with just one. The consequence, traffic has continued to get worse not better. I would not say all laws have these types of unintended consequences but I think it is a safe assumption to say the the majority of laws passed do end up having unforeseen side effects that the drafters did not intend. The degree of impact on the society is variable. The reflections over this week have made me think a lot about unintended side effects and the need to think about what will fill the void when what is already in place is removed. Sometimes it can be good (indoor plumbing vs outhouse), or better then what was there. Other times, it can be much worse (the fall of Saddam Hussein). Don't get me wrong, I am not an advocate for Saddam and his regime, I only point out that the aftermath of that "reduction" was not what was intended and what filled the void not so good. So I have to ask with all these calls for reductions, what is going to fill the void? What is the plan and what must we do to make sure that what comes next is not worse then what we have now. And it is key to remember that it is not reductions in just one thing it is reduction through the whole cycle product/social/life. Not just the power plant spewing smoke, but transportation, mining, exploring, etc. So the thought of this week, what comes next? AND (lets be proactive here) what can each of us (we) do to make sure that what comes next is better? Anyone want to post their thought or have an answer they want to share with the class? This past week, I traveled to the Philippines. It is a first for me. It almost breaks my mind to meet a people that seem so remarkably friendly helpful and yet the country as a whole has major Conflict issues including an uneasy truce between the southern area and the rest of the country. But that is for a later post.
This past week, thanks to G'14 classmate, Pearl Pacada, I was taken to the province of Tarlac, 2 hours north of Manila. This happens to be where Pearl is from and also the province she was former Vice-Governor. Thanks to her, I was able to have a number of candid conversations with political members about the effects of climate change and even the conflict happening down south. Already, Typhoons are having more damaging landfall results and areas once sheltered from typhoon activities have started feeling the effects of larger storms or storms that have shifted from their traditional courses. Tarlac is actually positioned to ride out the climate change pattern fairly well given its location, however the province directly south of Tarlac which borders Manila will not be so lucky. Speaking with someone from the Provincial Capital, the Climate Change report done for the Institute of Governors outlined a 100 year model forecasting predictable impacts from climate change. It shows a rise in sea level which would put up to half of Manila and a large 20 km swath of the neighboring province underwater. That is hundreds of square kilometers of urban and agricultural land that will be submerged forcing resettlement of lands and a reduction in food production. However, it is more then just the technical problem of a new coast line and population resettlement. Filipino family units and the very social structure is based on long standing traditions with families occupying the same area (even the same house, village, plot of land) for generations. The loss of these areas will not just be a loss of farmland or village but a fundamental shift/loss/disruption to peoples very identities. On Saturday, I helped Pearl conduct her leadership workshop for 16 young high school women from her province. Hosted by Soroptimist International of Tarlac, the purpose of this workshop was to begin to give these young women the skills/tools needed to empower them. The social challenges they face are daunting. Philippine culture is not renowned for the empowerment of young women, especially in these rural areas where the most that is expected is for them to find a good husband from a good family to marry and then take over running the home. It was very exciting for me to be able to take part in these workshop and help possibly show these young women another way, or at least give them the tools to make them more empowered however their future turns out. Given the Climate Change report, they will certainly need to face some difficult challenges in their future. It has been a very busy two weeks! Late last week the GIST team gathered together again to do our Mid GIST Rendezvous/check in and, leaving tradition, we arranged to do a group project during the mid point. Putting our own specific research on hold, we banded together to try and give back; pooling our talents to help build something that will last.
After our night in Bangkok going over our activities we had done up until then and getting a feel for where all of our projects stood in their completion timing we got up Friday and made the trek to Chiangmai to work with a small rural primary school in the mountains north of Chiangmai. The team spent 5 days in the area working to help the new Director - a firestorm of a woman that inspires everyone who interacts with her to want to change lives for the better - to establish a new "Sustainability Guesthouse and immersive experience" for foreign guests. The money raised will go to help the school become self-sufficient and raise funds to increase the quality of education for the K-6 grade students that attend. Currently almost 50% of the 6th grade students are illiterate and lack access to basic quality eduction. The new director is driven to bring the literacy rate up to 100% during her tenure and the new "Guest House and Volunteer" project hopes to draw the international Eco-tourists already in the area to come stay at the school and interact with the children, help work to expand the schools organic garden and inspire this small community to better themselves. It is a noble vision and one we as a team were lucky to be part of. In our four days at the school site the team interviewed the Director, the faculty and staff and the surrounding village community to get a better idea of the vision of the project and the needs in the area. We then drafted a plan to start the guest house and created a Facebook site and a webpage that will allow people to follow the progress of the program and even book a stay at the initiative. Take a look and "LIKE" the Facebook page. Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/maewangschoolstay Website: TBD For my own purposes for my GIST research, I was able to talk with the Director and the Thai Team about the environmental issues faced in the rural mountain areas and learned more about the Self-Sufficient programs being pushed by the Thai King. After the project we returned to Bangkok and debriefed. Now we go our separate ways and I am off to the Philippines to continue with my research till the end of the Month. |
AuthorI'm Dan. Climate Change and Conflict. Archives
April 2015
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