Climate Change and Conflict
I have been asked about the southern region of the Philippines and specifically the conflict between government forces and the Moros insurgent groups. For anyone that knows anything about the Philippines, then you immediately know the area... Mindanao and the Muslim insurgency that has been going on in at least one form or another for the past 60 years. Some research indicates longer... since Spain first landed in the 1600's. But lets not go all the way back that far and stick to the modern conflict so 60 years.
This conflict is convoluted with groups splitting, reforming, splitting again. Muslims against Catholics, Catholics against Communists (forgot about them?) Communists and against both. Regional Tribes against National Government and occasionally, the U.S. against al Qaeda and both National Government, U.S. Military and the on again off again support of local Muslim groups against international Jihadists... That is the stage and the players in a very condensed version. Confusing with constantly shifting ties. Currently there is a ceasefire between the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), the largest Muslim "rebel/freedom fighter" group and the Philippine National Government. However, an incident back in March that lead to the death of 44 National Police officers in the successful raid and shooting of a known international terrorist leader has strained the peace process and has led to investigations of current President Aquino. As can be imagined, there are many different feelings towards this conflict and the current peace negotiations. But for my research I focus on the people. The fluid nature of this insurgency/conflict leads to displacement. Every time fighting breaks out people have to flee their homes and are displaced to security camps elsewhere in the Philippines. A report from the World Bank states that "from 2011 until 2014, the total number of people who died, were injured, kidnapped or trafficked reached 7,972 while the total number of families displaced reached 77,052." I have seen other reports indicating this number is higher. The conflict is so fluid that as of March 2014, the World Bank has funded a conflict tracking program for the area that shows up to the minute research about the conflict and what is happening where. The release states "Comprehensive data about conflicts in the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) is now available to anyone with a computer or a mobile device with the launch of the Bangsamoro Conflict Monitoring System (BCMS) website." The website is www.bcms-philippines.info for anyone interested in following or are data nerds like me. In my first post I talked about the information i gathered from local area officials about the future certainty of massive coastal incursions by the sea and mass displacement of people from flooded regions. Additionally, the three weeks spent here in the Philippines has not made me see the government processes as up to the task of dealing with this conflict. IN my conversations "Corruption" comes up more than any other term. On a side trip to Southern Luzon and the Volcano at Taal, I heard about the corruption scandal where a group of private Korean businessmen attempted to build a resort in the middle of the lake on an island next to an active volcano that still shows discharge at night. This area is protected land. But the scandal showed for the right price they could get the permits to build. The project was already underway when other officials took notice and shut them down and two local officials where brought up on charges of corruption for accepting bribes to build the resort. One would think this story would highlight that there are officials that take their responsibilities seriously and when they found out of what was happening, they did the right thing and shut it down. However, the general sentiment is that perhaps the officials doing what was "right" where not motivated by altruism but more were pissed off that they were not given bribes as well and thus turned in the fellows out of spite... (that cannot be proven but definitely colored the story I was told) If the peace problem is going to be constantly colored by poor government decisions (this will not be the first peace initiative that has collapsed), corruption and revenge how can this be settled in time to work out the displacement effects of sea level rise? Mindanao is resource rich and not as populated as the islands northward, a seemingly ideal resettlement area for future displacement. However, the animosity between Muslim and Catholic groups will be very hard to overcome. Part of the conflict stems from the migration of Catholics from the northern areas to the south and the perceived marginalization of the Moros ethnic groups. I cannot imagine that in the future, even if peace is secured, people in the area will be happy about more "Catholics" coming from the north. One problem in the leadership managment of the area is that there are numerous Muslim factions so getting them all to agree will be difficult if not impossible. Even with a peace between Manila and MILF, there will still be fighting to root out these rabid groups. The conflict is far from over.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorI'm Dan. Climate Change and Conflict. Archives
April 2015
Categories |
Proudly powered by Weebly